Recently, the data released by the Customs statistics online inquiry platform shows that in August 2024, China's polysilicon export volume was 4042.68 tons, down 30.21% from the previous month, and an increase of 4182.36%. In the same period, polysilicon imports were 4531.968 tons, an increase of 55.13% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 14.89%.

For the reasons for the year-on-year increase in polysilicon exports and the decline in imports in August, Guangfa Futures analyst Yufei explained that the main exporters of polysilicon in China are Vietnam and Malaysia, and it is also the area where Chinese enterprises layout downstream industries overseas. The main reason for the sharp year-on-year increase in export volume is that the previous export base is small, and the quarter-on-quarter decline may be related to the recent reduction in the operating rate of overseas factories. The main importer of polysilicon in China is Germany, and the increase in imports is related to the higher prosperity of the semiconductor industry and the rising demand for export products of some photovoltaic companies.

Talking about the reasons for the short-term quarter-on-quarter growth of polysilicon imports, Fang Wenzheng, photovoltaic analyst of Longzhong Information, said that downstream consumer demand for polysilicon is mainly from the photovoltaic field and semiconductor field, and mainly in the photovoltaic field. The domestic polysilicon supply capacity has been enhanced, gradually replacing part of the import demand, but there is still a market for imported polysilicon for electronic grade and other levels of products. In addition, there is also a certain demand for imported polysilicon in specific cases, such as rush order delivery or to solve the problem of traceability and carbon footprint of overseas orders. "The rebound in polysilicon imports in August is not a fundamental factor, mainly caused by domestic stockpiling by overseas manufacturers, which also shows that the import growth may be short-term inventory replenishment, rather than long-term demand growth." Fang Wenzheng said.

For the reasons for the short-term decline in polysilicon exports, Fang Wenzheng believes that the decline in exports may be related to overseas market demand, shipping capacity, international trade policies and tariffs, prices and other factors. For example, the uncertainty caused by the US election may curb exports to ASEAN countries, which in turn affects polysilicon exports. "From the data of the first half of the year, China's silicon material is mainly exported to the surrounding countries with photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Netherlands are the top three customers." In addition, polysilicon export price fluctuations may also affect the export volume. In August, the average export price of polysilicon in China was $9.92 / kg, up 14.55% from the previous month." Fang Wenzheng explained that the global polysilicon market supply and demand changes may also affect the export volume, the current global photovoltaic capacity overall decline, if the market oversupply, then it will lead to overseas demand decline, domestic export volume decline. He believes that in the future, with the continuous improvement of the global layout of China's photovoltaic industry chain, the overseas polysilicon market will be further opened, and exports are expected to continue to rise.

It is understood that previously, China's polysilicon imports are mainly, and exports are less. In the past decade, the overall import volume rose first and then fell, mainly because the domestic polysilicon production capacity continued to put in, polysilicon self-supply capacity increased. From the absolute volume of imports, from 2014 to 2017, China's annual polysilicon imports gradually increased from 60,000 tons to nearly 160,000 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 15.8%; After 2017, polysilicon imports gradually declined, from 159,000 tons in 2017 to 63,000 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of -14.3%. Among them, the decline in imports in 2023 has expanded, down 28.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of relative imports, the proportion of polysilicon imports in domestic supply has declined year by year. With the further production of more domestic integrated production capacity projects, it is expected that future imports will continue to decline.

"At present, the polysilicon import and export change of about 2000 tons, if you count the rolling difference, the impact is only about 1000 tons, compared to the domestic overall monthly production accounted for less than 1%, the impact is not big." Epoch Fei believes that with the release of domestic polysilicon production capacity, domestic production will gradually increase, China's polysilicon external dependence will decline significantly, the current export volume and import volume are close, the future is expected to become a net exporter of polysilicon. Yide futures analyst Zhang Haiduan also said that from the perspective of import and export pattern, in the industrial silicon, silicone, polysilicon and photovoltaic main line, polysilicon is the only net import variety, the other are mainly exported. However, in recent years, with a large number of domestic production capacity and product quality continues to improve, polysilicon imports have been reduced year by year, the gap between imports and exports is gradually narrowing, in July this year is the first time that exports exceed imports, it is expected that the future will turn into a net export pattern.

How does the change in polysilicon import and export data affect the demand for industrial silicon? Zhang Haiduan believes that although the latest polysilicon import and export data are volatile, the impact on industrial silicon demand is small. In August, polysilicon exports fell month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate as high as 4182.36%, mainly because exports in the same period last year were only 0.01 million tons, which was calculated to be a higher year-on-year growth rate. Imports have been declining year by year, and the vast majority of imports this year are negative year-on-year growth. In terms of absolute volume, imports and exports in August were less than 5,000 tons, accounting for less than 3.5% of domestic polysilicon production, so imports and exports have less impact on the polysilicon market, and have less impact on industrial silicon demand.

From the current industrial silicon fundamentals, Yufei believes that the current supply of industrial silicon is more abundant. September industrial silicon production is expected to remain high and volatile, on the one hand, industrial silicon prices continue to fall, some enterprises overhaul production cuts; On the other hand, the production capacity of some polysilicon - industrial silicon integration projects will increase production. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of the week of September 19, the number of metal silicon furnaces started in China was 371, and the overall furnace opening rate was 49.73%, an increase of 2 sets from last week.

From the perspective of demand, Epoch Fei said that the "gold nine silver ten" peak season is expected to increase demand, but the current market demand growth is small. Data show that in August due to the increase in maintenance production, polysilicon production fell to 128,600 tons, but the supply is still abundant, in September polysilicon production is expected to rise at a low level, and prices are stable and rising. In addition, the head enterprise price superposition part of the traders to purchase, the price rose 2 yuan/kg, but some enterprises have the willingness to resume production, the future production will increase, if the downstream demand is not significantly improved, is not conducive to the price continued to rise.

From the plate, although the macro sentiment improved last week due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, it failed to bring support to industrial silicon. On September 19, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9360 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.85%.

Looking ahead to the future market, Wang Yanqing, an analyst with CITIC Construction and Investment Futures, believes that the current industrial silicon supply is still oversupply. Although the downward trend of silicon plant construction is suspended, some enterprises still have plans to reduce production, the demand side continues to be sluggish, the oversupply trend continues, and the warehouse invoice shipment efforts or further increase after October, the price pressure still exists, and the industrial silicon price or the bottom shock operation continues. Zhang Haiduan also said that the recent industrial end has not changed much, the supply has stabilized after the previous reduction, and there is even a small increase in the northwest region. In the early stage, Sichuan's operating rate has also stabilized after falling, and some enterprises in Southwest China are under greater pressure, and there are still plans to reduce production and stop furnaces, which needs further attention.

Article from: Securities Times