Changjiang Securities: It is expected that the new production capacity will be very limited next year, and the marginal improvement in the prosperity of the silicone industry is optimistic
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Changjiang Securities' main views are as follows:
Silicones are compounds in which carbon and silicon form Si-C bonds and at least one organic group is directly connected to silicon atoms
At present, the mainstream products are generally the main chain of [Si-O-Si]n, and the other two groups on the silicon atom are methyl dimethyl cyclosiloxane mixed ring (DMC), that is, silicone intermediates. Silicone downstream products are numerous, different application fields. Silicone deep processing products mainly include silicone rubber, silicone oil, silicone resin and silane coupling agent four categories. Because the silicone frame is [Si-O-Si]n, which is more stable than the CC bond, it has better temperature resistance characteristics, electrical insulation properties, chemical inertia and low surface tension, and its excellent performance has derived many products, new application fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, etc., are constantly lit up, and the permeability continues to increase.
Demand: Strong overseas demand, stable domestic growth
Overseas: Benefiting from the improvement of the overseas economic environment, the rapid development of emerging economies, and the end of the overseas storage cycle, since 2024, China's silicone export volume has changed compared with the sharp decline in the second half of 2022, from January to July 2024, China's polysiloxane export volume reached 319,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%. With the expected rise of interest rate cuts in the United States and the rapid development of emerging economies such as India, it is expected that overseas silicone demand is expected to continue to repair and vigorously promote China's silicone exports.
Domestic: China's DMC apparent consumption is increasing rapidly, and the four-year compound growth rate of DMC apparent consumption from 2019 to 2023 is 9.0%. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of silicone downstream products in various fields, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, home appliances and other fields, it is expected that the demand for silicone will continue to increase.