According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of January 7, the average price of the silicone DMC market in several mainstream areas monitored by the data was 18,700 yuan / ton, compared with the end of last month (December 31), a decrease of 70 yuan. / Ton, about 0.36%.


Second, market analysis


Products: Entering 2020, the domestic organic silicon market continues to run steadily. Only some manufacturers of organic silicon DMC have been slightly reduced by about 300 yuan / ton. Currently, the mainstream price of organic silicon DMC is 18300-19,000 yuan / ton, and some low prices are 18100 yuan / ton. Ton, as the Spring Festival is getting closer, the stocking enthusiasm is gradually fading, and some mid-stream and downstream factories will be closed for work and holidays, and the market trading atmosphere will gradually flatten out. Before the Spring Festival, the price of silicones will basically remain stable, and the fluctuation will be limited. Due to the different stocks of various manufacturers, individual manufacturers may slightly reduce their quotes. They want to stimulate the volume of the year before, but they have little impact on the overall organic silicon market as a whole. In January, plant equipment maintenance increased, and the overall market operating rate fell. From next week At the beginning, some midstream and downstream plants will be suspended until the start of the festival, and the market is now running smoothly.


Installation start-up: Aiken Silicone Jiangxi Base installed 450,000 tons per year. The device is operating normally this week. It is expected to have maintenance plans in late January. Hubei Xingfa has a capacity of 180,000 tons per year. The device is currently shut down and online. Resumption of driving in mid-month, and the annual production capacity exceeded 300,000 tons / year after the line was merged; Shandong area: Luxi Chemical is currently operating smoothly; Jinling, Shandong is expected to have maintenance plans in early January; Shandong Dongyue's production capacity is 250,000 tons / year, The current operating rate is about 7 floors; Zhejiang area: Zhejiang Xinan and Zhejiang Hesheng are currently operating normally; Tangshan Sanyou has a production capacity of 200,000 tons / year, and it is expected to have a maintenance plan in January.


Industry chain: Under the support of the upstream DMC cost of silicone oil and 107 rubber, the current market reference quotation is still firm and stable, and the transaction in the silicone oil market is slightly weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is weakening, and a small amount of stocking demand has limited new order transactions. The market's resistance to high prices has always existed, and downstream stocking is mainly cautious. 107 glue manufacturers are currently delivering pre-orders, with short-term inventory pressure, and overall supply and demand fundamentals are good. On January 6, manufacturers of methyl silicone oil (conventional viscosity) quoted prices around 19,000-20500 yuan / ton; 107 glue manufacturers quoted prices around 19,000-20200 yuan / ton.


3. Forecast


Business analysts believe that the market has basically finished stocking before the holiday, the current market demand is relatively weak, the factory inventory pressure is relatively small, the current supply and demand situation is weak, it is expected that the price will not fluctuate before the holiday, and the market will remain stable before the Spring Festival. the Lord.