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Business Club: Silicone DMC Soars 28% After Bottom, Can Silicon Metal Relay in August

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According to the data of the business agency, as of August 23, the average market price of metal silicon (441 #) was 11,100 yuan / ton, which was an increase of 4.39% from the average market price of 10,633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of the silicon market changed significantly from the previous downtrend.


The statistics of the business agency show that the lowest average price of the silicon metal (441 #) market in 2019 will appear on July 26, with an average price of 10633.33 yuan / ton, which is a 12.66% decrease from the market average price at the beginning of the year; The peak price during the year was 12,225 yuan / ton (March 4), an increase of 0.41% from the beginning of the year; the amplitude so far this year is 13.05%.


中 Since mid-March, the price of silicon metal (441 #) has shown a downward trend as a whole. The price trend of the metal silicon commodity index is as follows:




Looking at historical data, the silicon metal commodity index on August 22 was 76.74, an increase of 0.46 points from yesterday, and a decrease of 28.56% from the highest point of the cycle at 107.42 points (2017-09-12), the lowest compared to September 25, 2016. The point 68.77 points rose 11.59%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)


The price of 441 # silicon in each region on the 23rd is as follows:


Fujian # 441 metal silicon price range is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, Sichuan region # 441 metal silicon price range is 10900-11100 yuan / ton, Kunming area # 441 metal silicon price range is 10800-10900 yuan / ton, Shanghai area # 441 metal silicon price range is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, Tianjin Port # 441 metal transaction range is 11000-11200 yuan / ton, Huangpu Port # 441 metal silicon price range is 11100-11200 yuan / ton.


一览 Overview of the three downstream data of aluminum alloy, silicone and polysilicon


1. The total output of aluminum alloys declined slightly from January to July


According to the latest updated data from the National Bureau of Statistics website, the aluminum alloy output in July was 822,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; the total output in January-July was 5.359 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%.


In terms of import and export, according to Chinese customs data, China's aluminum alloy exports in June 2019 were about 51,000 tons, an increase of about 10.1% month-on-month and an increase of about 12.8% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, China's aluminum alloy exports totaled about 280,000 tons, an increase of about 14.4% over the same period last year.


2. The price of silicone DMC bottomed out in mid-June and has soared 28.31% so far


生意 According to the data of the business agency, the domestic average price of organic silicon DMC on August 23 was 21,000 yuan / ton, which was 28.31% higher than the average market price of 16,366.67 yuan / ton on June 14.




Obviously, when the downstream organic silicon DMC started to rise in mid-June, the overall market in the silicon market was weak, as was the low-grade silicon metal (441 #).


Silicon-silicone DMC price trend list




On August 22, the price index of metal silicon and organic silicon DMC was 67.49, an increase of 0.41 points from yesterday, and a decrease of 37.49% from the highest point of the cycle at 107.97 points (2015-02-10), the lowest compared to April 18, 2017. Point 64.62 rose 4.44%. (Note: Period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)


3. Polysilicon keeps falling, high-grade silicon is under pressure




It is reported that the current domestic polysilicon market has stabilized and bottomed out, and the price has started to show a downward trend. The market atmosphere is acceptable. At present, there is not much overhaul of manufacturers' equipment, and the market supply is stable.


The supply and demand side of the silicon market improved in August


Supply side: The operating rate of silicon factories in Sichuan-Yunnan region has reached a relatively high level throughout the year, but it is about 3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The maintenance capacity of some manufacturers in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other regions is expected to resume in mid-late August. The operating rate in the north will increase slightly from the previous month. Affected by the previous weak price of silicon prices, some high-cost production capacity has been gradually cleared from the market. In July, the operating rate of silicon companies was reduced by 7-8 points year-on-year.


Demand side: In August, foreign trade orders were released in a concentrated manner. In the early days, the large stocks of large northern manufacturers fell. The price of the silicon market as a whole rose steadily, and market sentiment picked up. Some people believe that after a long period of downward market prices, the price has now tended to the market At the bottom, some traders' market confidence rebounded. Under the expectation of limited downward space, some domestic downstream companies changed weekly scattered purchases to monthly tenders, increasing the volume of centralized purchase orders.


Low-grade silicon market looks better


开始 Beginning at the end of July, traders and downstream procurement have been active, factory inventory has been significantly reduced, and low-grade silicon has been affected by supply and demand factors. Quotations from silicon factories have continued to increase quotations for lower-grade silicon. It is expected that the prices of metal silicon such as (553 #, 441 #) will be strong and stable in the near future, and wait and see the downstream demand changes.

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