This week, the price of Wanhua PM200 in Shandong increased to 15200-15500 yuan/ton, up by about 1600 yuan/ton from last week, the price of pure MDI was about 22,000 yuan/ton, and the current market price of aniline was close to 6,300 yuan/ton. The price of benzene rose to about 4,900 yuan / ton. At present, the spread of polymerized MDI-aniline has expanded to about 10,500 yuan / ton. Zhuo Chuang Information estimates that the current aggregate MDI gross profit is about 6,800 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic supply is tight, and the downstream will gradually resume construction. We judge that the recent aggregation of MDI will remain strong. According to Baichuan News, the failure of the Costron distillation unit will affect the future supply of pure MDI, and the time for resuming work has not yet been determined. Since the beginning of this year, Japan’s Mitsui, South Korea’s Kumho and Saudi Dow have been the main importers of domestic aggregate MDI. However, as domestic prices have fallen to around 11,000 yuan/ton, the profit from exporting to the Chinese market has been meager, and then they have switched to export to Southeast Asia. The import volume of aggregated MDI fell by 18% from the previous month, and the export volume increased by 0.6% from the previous month. The domestic import and export pattern has improved. In the next 2-3 years, the global MDI industry will have a capacity expansion of over 2 million tons, of which
[Wanhua Chemical (600309)] will expand production capacity by 1.2 million tons in China and the United States, further consolidating the leading position in the global industry. At present, the company has completed the overall listing of the chemical business segment, and the MDI equity production capacity has increased to over 2 million tons. It has become the world's largest MDI manufacturer. For every MDI price increase of RMB 1,000/ton, the company's pre-tax profit will increase by RMB 2 billion. We will continue to recommend it for a long time.




Silicone: Domestic DMC manufacturers' prices continue to increase by RMB 500/ton this week, and the price of organic silicon products has increased.




At present, the domestic DMC market price is 19,000 yuan - 20,000 / ton, the raw rubber price is 19,500-20,000 yuan / ton, the 107 rubber price is 19,200-19,500 yuan / ton, and the East China domestic silicone oil is the mainstream transaction price of 22,000-23,000 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, the price of 421# metal silicon is stable at around 13,000 yuan/ton. The price of methanol in East China fluctuates upwards. The mainstream price is 2500-2550 yuan/ton, and the price of methyl chloride is 2700 yuan/ton. DMC and raw material metal The spread of silicon and methanol has expanded to more than 9,000 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, domestic organic silicon enterprises stopped working and repaired more. At present, except for the 100,000-ton installation of Zhejiang Zhongtian, the rest of the equipment has been operating normally. It is expected that the output of organic silicon will decrease by 20,000 tons in February, and in March, Zhejiang Hesheng and Luxi Chemical (000830) has an overhaul plan. At present, the company's inventory is at a low level, and the downstream orders are in good condition. Combined with the price trend after the Spring Festival in 2017 and 2018, we believe that the downstream peak season market will come in March, while the current Sino-US trade tension has eased, and silicone exports The quantity is expected to further increase and promote the export demand for domestic silicone products. At present, the domestic DMC price is at the bottom stage, and the price is expected to continue to rise.
[Xin'an shares (600596)] and
[Xingfa Group (600141)].




Dimethyl carbonate: The price of domestic dimethyl carbonate has remained stable recently. At present, the price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate manufacturer in Shandong is more than 6800-7000 yuan/ton, which is 1400-1500 yuan/ton higher than the same period of last year. More than 9,000 yuan / ton. The price of raw material propylene oxide in Shandong Province dropped slightly to about 10,000 yuan / ton this week. The current price difference of DMC + PG-PO-MT is about 5,500 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year. The 100,000-ton PC project of Lutianhua Zhonglan New Materials will be ready for formal production in the near future. The Gansu New Materials and Henan Shengtong Juyuan total 200,000 tons of PCs are also planned to be officially commissioned in March-April, and the current non-phosgene process PC gross profit is about 1,100 yuan / ton, higher than the two phosgene process gross profit level. In the future, many non-phosgene process PC projects will further increase the demand for DMC in the market. The annual demand is expected to increase to more than 100,000 tons, and the electrolyte capacity will still maintain a relatively high growth rate of about 30%-40%, while the DMC industry 1- There is almost no new capacity in 2 years. We expect that the domestic supply and demand gap of dimethyl carbonate will be further enlarged in the future. The product price is still in the rising channel in the medium term. We recommend the production capacity of 105,000 tons of equity capacity from the perspective of industry supply and demand.